Sheer amount of reforms, which the current Hungarian government is engaged
into, and, most of all, the volume of reformed economic and political
institutions is unprecedented. Apart from Prime Minister Viktor Orban, no one,
not even the members of his own government, seem to be aware of the complicated
situation, which Hungary fetched itself in. The government is under tremendous
pressure exerted by the international institutions. Orban awaits the IMF
decision regarding the loan for Hungary with the strained attention — this loan
may give the markets a positive signal.
Initiating his
reforms, Orban could have hardly foreseen such acute attack against Hungary and
the negative reaction that financial markets produced — they obviously haven’t
believed him. The European Commission forces the IMF to present all the more
ultimatums to Budapest. Crisis impacts the interests of hundreds of thousands
Hungarian families, which loaned money in Swiss francs, the exchange rates of
which grow like mushrooms after the rain. Hungary is criticized by an every
single European media, which scoff Orban and dub him a fascist. He counters
that with even more acute rhetoric, claiming straightforwardly: “The European
Commission is blackmailing us”. Yet, it goes beyond the scope of rhetoric.
Hungarian Prime Minister was forced to surrender to Brussels in the matters of
the Central Bank independence and the Law on Media. Janusz Horvath, U.S.-based
Professor of Economics and former aide of Orban, gave the following comment:
“He’s in a very
twisted situation. Orban understands that he has to be both firm and ready for
give-and-takes at the same time. He is a career politician and is well aware of
the rules of the game. Hungary wants him to be rigid, while Brussels awaits
compromises. Prime Minister has to explain the West that he is the only person,
capable of keeping Hungary stable and peaceful”.
Orban’s Fidesz partisans
lack unity as well. Part of them is displeased with the complaisance of
Hungarian government towards the EU, another part believes that Orban is
insufficiently firm when it comes to standing up for the national interests.
Will Orban listen to his surrounding? That is a hell of a question. One of his
proxies describes the situation in a following manner:
“He would listen
to everyone, yet would sharply question everyone too. Sometimes he even replies
‘No’ to a casual ‘Good afternoon’. Most of the times you leave his office in
disappointment, understanding that you’ve failed to persuade him. He, however,
calls for another aide and uses your own arguments in the conversation. No one
knows what decision he would finally lean towards”.
Prime Minister’s
aides were sure that he was to trigger yet another war with the European
Commission during his last visit to Brussels — he, instead, met with Barroso
and promised to step back in a certain number of key issues. Hungary changes at
such rapid pace that many citizens are unable to take cues from the situation;
new laws are poorly written and contain factual errors, which have to be
amended. The result is a terrible mess and a huge number of misunderstandings.
According to close associates of the Prime Minister, this haste proceeds from
the experience of former Orban’s premiership. Then all the reforms were
introduced cautiously and plenty of concepts have never been realized due to a
mere lack of time. His today’s goal is to bring all the reforms into life
within the first two years of his term. In order to achieve this,
parliamentarian approval of new bill drafts was hastened with their
introduction by Fidesz MPs — the purpose of that is to avoid the lengthy
procedure of approving each bill at every possible Ministry and institution
along the way.
Fidesz party
placed quite a trust into Orban, party members trust his political hunch,
efficiency and decisive nature, yet his manner of leadership estranges and
alienates him even from the closest proxies all the more. Hungarians relate
that on the verge of elections the atmosphere in the country was very special. People
used to gather at every village, at every suburb, at every city district,
discussing political news, arguing about politics, reading the poetry aloud.
Such “civil groups”, although not affiliated with Fidesz, were the direct
electoral platform of Orban. When Europe attacked Orban, these “groups”
organized the marche to support his cause. About half a million people (out of
10 million strong population) took part in it. If you upscale the situation and
project it onto America, it was as if 12 million Americans hit the streets of
Washington. People decided to march voluntarily, without a hint of orchestration.
This was the Hungarian reaction to an on-air broadcasting of the European
Parliament sitting, where the Hungarian government was sharply criticized. The
placards saying “Don’t want to be a colony!” were seen in the crowd. This
impressed Brussels and the European rhetoric in regard of Hungary has softened
a bit.
Orban’s policy has split the Hungarian society into two. Half of the
population supports him in his opposition to Europe, another half is more
subjected to compromises. “Patriots” believe that Orban leads the country in
the right direction, championing the national interests, while the “westerners”
are sure that he makes Hungary drift away from Europe, being irritated with the
legal chaos and all too frequent changes of legislation. A lot of things depend
on whether Viktor Orban manages to unite the society, reconciling the divergent
interests of various population groups. This is not a trifling task at all and
the success of dealing with it is far from being predetermined. Viktor Orban,
though, has a reputation of a man, whose cup of tea is exactly the situations
like that. People, who know him, say that solving conflicts and standing up to
challenges is what he was made for. We may only hope that the scale of
conflicts and challenges won’t go beyond the scale of Orban’s own personality. 
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