Latvian analysts believe that political crisis in Latvia gives the Consent Center a chance to get the majority of Seim seats and enter the ruling coalition. Such outcome of elections might have led to the solution of a painful issue of political rights of “non-citizens”.
“Things that happen in Latvia after the dismissal of Seim may be compared to an effect of a brick, thrown into the anthill. Complete mess, no one understands what to do”. These are the words of a political engineer Erik Stendzenieks describe the situation in this Baltic State quite accurately. Let me remind you that in the beginning of June Latvian Seim elected Andris Bērziņš as the new President — he’s a businessman that has almost no political experience but features the support of local business elites.
The elections took place at the background of a sudden decision of former President Valdis Zatlers, who set the referendum to disband the parliament, which was elected merely 7 months ago. Zatlers was the favorite of presidential elections, yet, on the 28th of May he accused the deputies, who were to make a decision about his re-election of “conspiring with the oligarchs”. Zatlers’ defeat and election of Bērziņš indicate that political crisis in Latvia is deepening, while business-community doesn’t perceive the current state policy as beneficial for them.
Tight connection of business and politics is actually characteristic for the post-socialistic countries, but in Latvia these ties is extremely strong. Participation of Latvian oligarchs, who have “luckily” taken part in privatization of the former Soviet territory at Latvian territory, in the politics has a permanent and quite pronounced character. Latvian oligarchs — just like their Russian colleagues — successfully corrupt the bureaucrats and deputies of the parliament and seize media-assets in order to efficiently influence the government and achieve a quite understandable goal of securing the most-favored regime for their business. During all the years of Latvian independence international organizations keep accusing the country of corruptness and lack of transparency — of both politics and business. Competition between influential oligarchs and the political parties they support created an unstable atmosphere in the country. The only incentive for oligarchs to unite is the fight against few political parties that require restraining their influence upon the political life inside the country.
Bērziņš’ elections came as a surprise for Latvians, amongst whom Zatlers is still quite popular. Bērziņš’s is still a newbie in politics and, being a complete namesake of the former Prime Minister Andris Bērziņš, he’s often perceived by the voters like one. In Latvia President-elect is better known as the many-years-old President of Unibanka, currently owned by Swedish SEB, and for ties with the so-called Valmieras group — business-political lobbyist centre, uniting influential politicians and businessmen, including the former Prime-Minister Andris Šķēle.
67-year-old Andris Bērziņš became the Latvian Seim deputy only in 2010. He graduated from the Riga Polytechnic Institute, majoring in the radio engineering, and during the Soviet era he was a director of the “Electrons” factory, while since 1988 until 1989 he was the Deputy Minister of Municipal Services. After Latvia proclaimed its independence, Bērziņš went into business and became one of the wealthiest people in the country. Besides, it is known that he receives the highest pension in Latvia.
Political future of Zatlers remains vague. Unexpected unleashing of the “anti-oligarchic war” by the leaving President Zatlers, who had previously displayed no intentions to champion the democracy, is surprising. His “sudden insight” makes us suspect the populist incentives of the former President, who might have chosen the fight against oligarchs as the motto for his elections campaign.
Public opinion polls indicate that probability of the parliament dissolution and the fact that referendum will deliver positive reply to the demand of an ex-President on the 23th of July is rather high already. If the parliament is dissolved, Zatlers will likely take part in the parliament elections. The intrigue is whether he dares to create his own party (which is an electorally successful step, yet, the one that is problematic from the organizational standpoint and costly in financial sense) or joins the ranks of a quite pestering “Unity” — ruling party, headed by the Prime Minister Dombrovskis.
Latvian analysts believe that political crisis in Latvia gives the Consent Center a chance to get the majority of Seim seats and enter the ruling coalition. Such outcome of elections might have led to the solution of a painful issue of political rights of “non-citizens”.
Here’s the today’s layout of power in Latvian Seim:
— «Unity» (Vienotība) — the main party of the ruling coalition (along with the Union of Greens and Farmers). They are the right-centrists who proclaimed themselves an alternative to the oligarchs. During the presidential elections on the 2nd of June, 2011 the party supported Valdis Zatlers. It has 33 mandates.
— Consent Center (Saskaņas centrs) — the largest oppositional left party, supporting the poorest strata and Russian-speaking minority. There are many ethnic Russians among the party leaders. Party is led by the Riga mayor Nil Ushakov. It has 29 mandates.
— «Union of Greens and Farmers» (Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība) — Part of the ruling coalition. It represents the interest of Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs. It has 22 mandates.
— «All for Latvia — Motherland and Freedom» (Visu Latvijai — TB/LNNK). It is the oppositional ultra-right nationalistic party and the main rival of the Consent Center. It has 8 mandates.
— «For better Latvia» (Par Labu Latviju) — It is an oppositional union of Andris Šķēle and Ainārs Šlesers. It has 8 mandates.
If the pre-term parliament elections take place this summer, we may suggest that Consent Center will increase its presence in the Latvian parliament, which subsequently may improve the status of our fellow compatriots, living in the Baltic republic and in a prospect even put an end to the ethnocratic regime in Latvia.
No comments:
Post a Comment