Analysts assume that Erdoğan is willing to change the very state system of Turkey, although their imagination can’t stretch further than that statement. In fact Erdoğan’s space for maneuver is not that vast. He won’t be able to make the country turn for an Iranian-like theocratic state. Therefore, we’re rather talking about some skin-deep changes, the main purpose of which is erasing the period of boundless military rule from the memory of Turks. After all, the effective Basic Law of Turkey was written exactly by the military.
Pre-election situation in Turkey left no place for doubts: party of Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan will win the elections. Intrigue still remained, though. Turkish Prime Minister ventured to change the Constitution, which required the constitutional majority in the parliament.
Election results should have disappointed the winner, in fact. Having gained 3.33% more votes than in 2007, JDP lost 15 MP mandates and failed to achieve the constitutional majority.
Nationalists from the NAP party, who befell victims of the sex-scandal (which take place even in the Muslim countries), became the main “losers” of the past elections. One of the party leaders was filmed with a hidden camera, mounted in a ceiling of the hotel suite, where he spent his time in a company of a pretty student girl. Another NAP functionary happened to lack control of his own language, having allowed himself to make less than flattering statements regarding his own party, paying no attention to the microphones. Published video- and audio-materials have significantly narrowed the electoral ground support of the party. That resulted in the 1.28% decrease of election results and merely 53 seats in the parliament, which is 18 seats less than last year.
Oppositional post-Kemalist RPP got 25.9%, which precisely fits the pre-election forecast of 25.8% (135 seats, 5.03% more than in 2007). Independent deputies, who mostly represent pro-Kurdish PDP, got 36 seats. Lacking the ability to “pierce through” the high 10% barrier it puts forth the independent deputies. Sevan Dermenjan, editor-in-chief of the Armenian Jamanak newspaper that is running in Turkey since the last century, noted that there have never been so many Kurdish deputies in the Turkish parliament.
Appearance of Christian deputy in the Turkish parliament may also be considered sensational. This happened for the first time during the last 50 years. 47-year-old lawyer Erol Dora, member of Assyrian Orthodox Aramaean community from South Anatolia was elected in the Mardin district. He’s not just the first Christian deputy since the military putsch of 1960, but also the first parliament representative of Aramaean minority. Pro-Kurdish PDP supported his candidacy, which managed to get 36 seats through its “independent” candidates and now is able to create its own parliament group. Generally speaking, current elections were characterized by an extraordinarily large number of Christian candidates in the ballot papers of various parties. The largest number of them was in the lists of the winning PDP country. There were two Orthodox among them — one Assyrian and one Greek, and also two Armenians. Two more Armenians were included into the lists of oppositional parties. According to sociologist Ayhan Aktar, specialist on the problems of Turkish minorities from the İstanbul Bilgi University, this indicates the approach of state and minorities: “People from these communities are feeling themselves more and more comfortable in politics, while 10 years ago none of them would’ve ventured to run for a seat in Turkish parliament”.
We have to point out that these changes were inspired by Erdoğan’s government. In March of this year Minister for European Affair Egemen Bağış has accepted an Armenian into his Ministry for the first time in the history and then Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appointed Armenian an Ambassador to the OSCE. Recently, Turkish Christians sensed the positive attention of the government. After decades of bans, they were allowed to hold divine services in various churches and monasteries — for example in the Orthodox Sümela Monastery in the northern Turkey, St. Cross Church at the Akdamar Island on Van Lake. They are allowed even in the historical places like House of the Virgin Mary in Ephesus and St. Paul’s Church in Tarsus that feature the museum statuses; Christians are also allowed to conduct public liturgies with a prior notification of authorities. When the election results were announced, Erdoğan proclaimed that his government will work for the good of every citizen, regardless of his or her confession or lifestyle.
Now we can actually draw the conclusion of elections. Erdoğan’s party has seen to the minimum goal — it retained the authority, but failed to gain the constitutional majority, necessary for the change of Constitution. It, however, still has an opportunity to attract the NAP or independent deputies to their side and ram the new Basic Law if they succeed. Frankly speaking, it’s still unclear whether Recep Erdoğan is actually going to do that, and if he is, what these changes might be.
In order to try and foresee the further actions of the winner, we have to analyze the current foreign and internal political status of Turkey. Erdoğan’s government (and that’s essentially important) secured the steady growth of economy. During the rule of PDP, the GDP increased more than thrice and that’s definitely a success. Turkish economy is attractive in the investment sense; foreign companies are bringing their production sites into the country. Mechanical engineering was added to the traditionally strong state industries like the textile industry. Tourist industry is prospering. Successful geographic location that turned Turkey into a transit country, lying on the key hydrocarbon pipeline routes, contributed to its economic stability and weight in international affairs.
All of that can be ascribed to the undoubted advantages. Rapidly developing Turkish economy pre-defined Turkish propensity for Europe and the USA. Being the only Muslim member-state of NATO, Turkey should seemingly have no obstacles on that path. Yet, steady position of Germany and France, two main donors of the EU, has put the expansion of Turkish crescent into Europe to an end.
Historically, army was the adherent of secular freedoms — its representatives ventured to anything (including the violations of civil rights and freedoms) in order to prevent the establishment of Islamic order. In the 1960s–1980s Turkish military coups became as commonplace as in sub-Sahel African countries. During the recent years, Erdoğan’s government started to deliver preventive strikes against the potential head-quarters of putschists (Ergenekon and Balyoz lawsuits).
By the way, part of people charged with the accusations of military coup, has successfully escaped the criminal prosecution, having been elected into a new Turkish parliament. As the Turkish Star newspaper reported, 5 men, accused of participation in the terrorist organization Ergenekon and involved in the military coup plan Balyoz (Sledgehammer), have become deputies. 4 candidates from the ballot paper of RPP — main oppositional power in Turkey — charged with Ergenekon participation, have been elected into parliament. They are: Mustafa Balbay (member of editorial board of the Turkish Cumhuriyet newspaper), Professor of medicine Mehmet Haberal, former prosecutor Erzincan İlhan Cihaner and the Trade Committee chair Sinan Aygün. NAP has brought retired Lieutenant-General Engin Alan, accused of participation in the Balyoz coup attempt, into the parliament — he got the majority of votes in the first district of Istanbul. At the same time, quite a number of “Ergenekon members” (Turkish journalist, writer and political activist Tuncay Özkan, leader of the Laborer’s party and well-known dissident Doğu Perinçek) and “Balyoz member” (former commander of the Istanbul First Garrison, General Çetin Doğan) have lost the elections.
The main issue of the Turkish domestic policy is still the change of Constitution, but no one knows for sure, what Erdoğan is going to do: “We will write the civil and liberal constitution that is to bring all the parts of our society together. There’ll be a place for everyone in it — both for the West and the East!”
It doesn’t go further that these evasive announcements, though. The only clear thing is that the government is willing to change the Constitution that was adopted after the military coup of 1982, emphasizing that the new Basic Law will be written by civilians, rather than military. It is yet unclear, what will new constitution look like. Analysts assume that Erdoğan is willing to change the very state system of Turkey, although their imagination can’t stretch further than that statement. In fact Erdoğan’s space for maneuver is not that vast. He won’t be able to make the country turn for an Iranian-like theocratic state. Therefore, we’re rather talking about some skin-deep changes, the main purpose of which is erasing the period of boundless military rule from the memory of Turks. After all, the effective Basic Law of Turkey was written exactly by the military.
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