At the global arena contemporary Turkey fetched itself in an “enemy within” kind of situation. Being integrated into the NATO Euro-Atlantic structures, this showcase of a secular Islamic state failed to overcome the alienation of its allies, simultaneously losing influence in its traditional environment — the Islamic world. Erdoğan’s “New Deal” is intended to drastically change this situation and turn Turkey not only into the most influential power in the Middle East, but also into the bearer of the Western influence in Islamic world — so vital for the USA and the Euro-Union.
Turkish foreign-policy challenges
Recep Erdoğan addressed his first public speech after the elections of the 12th of June this year not to the Turkish nation that allotted him with a credit of trust for the third time, but to the entire Islamic world:
“I gladly welcome citizens of Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Cairo, Tunisia, Sarajevo, Skopje, Baku, Nicosia and the rest of friendly and fraternal nations that anxiously watched the news from Turkey. Today Middle East, Caucasus and the Balkans have won to a same degree as we Turks. Our role is increasing not only in the regional politics, but in the global one as well. Our duty is to call everyone for the fight for human rights, for justice, for prevalence of law, freedom and democracy”.
He just couldn’t have expressed his intentions clearer. Turkey is heading towards the increase of its significance in the Islamic world. Erdoğan is discontent with the status of a “poor relation”, waiting in the European reception room in order to be recognized as European. We only have to recall the scandalous behavior of Turkish Prime Minister during his February visit to Germany, when he called for his fellow compatriots residing in German state to retain their national identity, having announced the following during rally in Dusseldorf, surrounded by 11 thousand of Turks, roaring in ecstasy: “Yes to integration, no to assimilation!” Erdoğan’s meeting with his compatriots went under three flags — the EU, Germany and Turkey. Offence at rich neighbors was seemingly that strong that it made Erdoğan style himself as a “Prime Minister of all German Turks”. There are plenty of them in Germany of course — 3 million people — but neither Angela Merkel, not German media liked the statements of Turkish Prime Minister. CSU leader Hans-Peter Friedrich stiffly replied Erdoğan:
“We don’t’ need Erdoğan’s instructions regarding human rights, while Turkey rather had to worry about observing actual human rights so the national and religious minorities in Turkey would have felt that”.
Rebuff of Philipp Mißfelder — speaker of CDU/CSU Bundestag faction for the foreign-policy matters — was even fiercer:
“I see no need to debate over Erdoğan’s demands regarding the necessity for Germany to discuss the integration issues with the Turkish government. We’re not going to discuss them with foreign governments. We consider it wrong to style itself as a champion of German Turks, just as well as championing Libya.”
Dashing cavalry-like Erdoğan’s attack against Germany was undoubtedly a part of his election campaign. Three million German Turks are voters and it would be outright silly not to secure their support. However, apart from the election incentives, Turkish leader also wished to “revenge” Germans, who blocked him the way to the EU. Thus, Erdoğan shocked Germans, who pay the social grants to 85% of his compatriots in Germany (at that, Germans Turks send part of this money to its poverty-stricken relatives at historical motherland). That makes billions of Euros, flowing into the Turkish economy. Fierce growth of GDP at the Bosporus shores is tightly bound to exclusively important role of German companies, about one and a half thousand of which located in Turkey. Germany leads in the number of investments into Turkey, which we have to credit with an artful “seduction” of the major German companies, creating a liberal investment climate for them through the tax benefits. Key German investors into Turkey are Bayer, BASF and Mercedes-Benz that make their hi-tech achievements a property of Turks. Foreign investments bring Turkish economy up to 5% of the export potential. Turkey seriously plans to increase it to 20% but it needs staff for that — young educated people, capable of “bridging” investors, local workers and the authorities. There are such people in Germany. They are the members of Turkish diaspora, younger part of which perfectly fits the requirements. Yet, there’s not many young educated Turks in Germany. Erdoğan preferred to lay the emphasis on the political aspect of this vital matter of Turkish economy:
“Our children have to learn German, but they have to learn Turkish first”.
German Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle couldn’t have left this Erdoğan’s claim unnoticed:
“Children, who grow up in Germany, have to study German first”.
Long story short, the main gates, thorough which he intended to ride into the European Union with triumph — the Brandenburg Gates — were closed for him. Turkey is not allowed to the global economic clubs either. This may seem weird but Turkey that had a GDP growth of 8.9% and budget surplus cannot apply for foreign loans because its stocks have the so-called “trash rating”. Turkish economic miracle is characterized by both stable status of banking sector, with its highly reliable loan portfolios and stable unemployment rates (in 2010 it reduced from 14 to 11%, having, thus, returned to the pre-crisis level of 2008). Economic is Erdoğan’s strong point, thanks to which he finely wins the elections for the third time in a row. Yet, having achieved all the possible successes with its internal resources, Turkey has hit the level of development, when only international investments can help to continue the growth. That is the down-side of globalization. And that’s where Erdoğan faced the dependence of a state investment rating from the political risks. Despite the successful anti-crisis program, in 2009 Turkey had to appeal to the IMF in 2009, asking for a $45 billion tranche. This deficit of floating assets along with the probable Islamization of the country pushes successful Turkish economy to the bottom part of the lists of global rating agencies. That means that shares of Turkish companies along with state obligations that are quoted much cheaper than their real value. That apparently irritates Turkish Prime Minister, who considers the ratings of Western agencies as attempt to exert pressure upon the sovereign Turkish state. Changes of the state Constitution he promised for the domestic purposes brought unexpected problems from without, which may, in their turn, negatively influence the stability inside of the Turkish society.
Erdoğan’s hints that “Christian West offends Muslims once again” and his statements about the European Union as a “Christian club” testify to the fact that Turkish leader has lost self-control in a certain sense. At that, Western attempts to turn the Turkish Republic into the model for Arab countries have reaped no results either. By the present day Ankara doesn’t meet two thirds of the EU requirements, obligatory for every would-be EU member. Kurdish demonstration, organized by Hannover Congress Centrum during Erdoğan’s visit to Germany, has caused yet another wave of Erdoğan’s irritation. Accusing the West of “Islamophobia that is a crime against humanity and racism in fact”, Turkish leader has got on the wrong side of European countries, thus, giving up the entry of Turkish crescent into the EU for lost.
New foreign policy of Ankara: objectives and the ways of reaching them
Having faced the black ingratitude of European NATO allies Recep Erdoğan started to seek for ways of influencing them. As long as the role of a model secular Islamic state happened to be insufficient for entering the EU and getting positive investment ratings, resourceful Turkish leader decided to choose another way. Enlivening and direction of recent Turkish foreign-policy enterprises brings us to a thought that simplified Erdoğan’s concept is intended to: improve the influence of Turkish Republic in the Islamic world, simultaneously strengthening its pressure upon the key Western ally in the Middle East — Israel. Turkish leader believes that acting in both of these ways at once Turkey may become the much-needed bearer of the Western influence in the Islamic world and the only acceptable mediator between the Muslim countries and Israel in the peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If Erdoğan’s concept is brought to life, Turkey will become an even more influential Middle-Eastern player, which will make Europe and the USA take its interests into consideration and reconsider the opportunity of integrating Turkey into the EU and global economic structures. We believe that suddenly burst Arab revolutions have brought Prime Minister to this though. Exactly thanks to them Turkey may become an indispensable mediator between the new Arab regimes and countries of the “golden billion”, having improved its positions both in the Arab world and among its NATO allies.
Foreign Minister of the Turkish Republic Ahmet Davutoğlu, this “Turkish Kissinger”, has become a key executor if not theoretician of Recep Erdoğan’s “New Deal”. He has repeatedly publicly claimed that the greatest dream of his entire life is to pray in Al-Aqsa mosque in Palestine. We can hardly assume that Foreign Minister is so bad in geography that he’s unaware of actual location of Muslim sacred place, situated in Israeli Jerusalem. I wonder, how would he reacted to the claim of Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister, stating that he’s dreaming to visit Diyarbakir, the capital of sovereign Kurdistan, located in the Turkish region of compact Kurdish population?
On the 7th of June this year, Turkish journalist Burak Bekdil published an article named “A tale of two cities: Istanbul vs. Jerusalem” in the Hürriyet Daily News weekly. Here’s what he writes about double standards of Turkish diplomacy.
“During the election campaign Prime Minister Erdoğan stood up with a speech, proudly claiming: ’We are the grandchildren of Saladin Ayyubi’s army [soldiers] that conquered Jerusalem’. So, says the prime minister, the ancient capital of Judaism had been conquered by Muslims. But why do we have to be proud for being ancestors of people who robbed someone of something? Few days before this address, Prime Minister told his voters that ‘We proudly celebrated the 558th anniversary of the conquest of Istanbul’. It is not a coincidence that Fatih (conqueror) is a very common male name in Turkish. We are too happy to be living in the territories that once belonged to other nations. A question arises then — why are the conquests of Istanbul and of Jerusalem by Ayyubi good, but the repatriation of Jerusalem to Israel by re-conquest bad? If Jerusalem should be the capital of “free Palestine,” why should Istanbul not become the capital of “freer Greece? What were the Turks doing at the gates of Vienna in 1683? Were they distributing humanitarian aid to the Viennese, like the İHH claims its Gaza mission is?”
Of course the very fact of publishing such a bold text makes a great honor for freedom of press media in Turkey, but we can’t simply sweep away the questions that Burak Bekdil raised:
Today, the Turkish leaders dream of praying in the “Palestinian capital” Jerusalem while denying the Orthodox Patriarch of Istanbul his ecumenical designation. Luckily, the Turks, unlike Arabs, are the grandchildren of conquerors. Keeping the ancient capital of Orthodoxy as the biggest Turkish city is fine. But please, Messrs Erdoğan and Davutoğlu, at least try not to make too much noise in commemorating the day when we took it by force from another nation. And remember, gentlemen, claiming that Istanbul is a Turkish city by origin and Jerusalem is Palestinian sounds like too-dark black humor.
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