It is yet unclear whether Turkey will find the stomach to invade Syria. We can’t rule out the possibility that the “leaks” regarding the prepared action are only intended to frighten Syria and Iran. Yet, if Turkey makes up its mind for this, Middle Eastern theater of war is to go through a total scenery change.
One and a half month ago author of these lines voiced up a suggestion about inevitable conflict of Turkish, Iranian and Syrian interests. Not only fight for Middle-Eastern influence, but also the Kurdish problem may become the reason of the conflict, which inevitability is rising furthermore.
Recently world media has been reporting about growing support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Last week Washington Post published an article, describing the details of it. Tehran is allegedly sending more and more aides (read — soldiers of its elite units) to Damascus along with weapons and special equipment for discovering the opposition members, who use popular social networks like Twitter and Facebook. Special Quds Force units were sent to Syria — they are parts of Iranian Guards of Revolution. Their functional target is the export of Islamic revolution. Newspaper got this information from Michael Singh — a former senior director for Middle East affairs for the National Security Council during George W. Bush’s administration
Anti-governmental rallies threaten to overthrow Assad. Importance of Syria in the eyes of Iran, according to British The Economist, is bound to position of the ruling circle among Arab Sunni countries that consider Shiite theocratic Iran to be the greatest regional threat. If Tehran manages to save Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, this will deliver a substantial hit against the U.S. plans to break the Damascus-Tehran axis with the help of Saudi Arabia. This alliance sponsors the main irritating factors of the USA and Israel — Hamas and Hezbollah.
Anti-governmental rally in Talbiseh in the center of Syria
Turkish competitors of Iran for the regional influence couldn’t have missed such course of action. According to the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, Prime Minister Erdogan is preparing a military invasion to Syria “in order to prevent the large influx of refugees in case of the civil war and secure the safe zone”. That’s how Turkish newspaper comments on the issue:
“Turkey is discontent with Syrian President Bashar Assad, because he promised to reform the country twice but both times failed to keep his promises. Turkish authorities have sent the delegations to Syria twice — as a result Assad promised to take soldiers off the streets and be done with the violence. Currently Turkish government is working on a secret plan to invade Syria and create the safe zone. In 1991, during the Gulf War, lots of Iraqi Kurds have fled to Turkey. Today this situation may repeat for Syria. In order to prevent this threat, Turkey is going to send troops to Syria”.
While Turkey and Iran fight for Syria, the sky is darkening over all three of the conflict participants. Syrian President may be put to trial, which Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced, calling for the UN to bring Bashar al-Assad to the International Criminal Tribunal. Prime Minister Erdogan survived yet another assassination attempt and it seems that it’s still too early for him to relax — according to Turkish newspaper Cihan, prior to Prime Minister’s visit to the town of Diyarbakir Security Service employees have confiscated 37 Molotov-cocktails, 52 bottles with ingredients for it and the sonic bombs. Iranian President Ahmadinejad is not in his best shape either — members of his team are arrested, while he’s being threatened with impeachment. His chances to stand against ayatollah Khamenei are scarce, while rumors about their alleged reconciliation are hardly verisimilar. Today we can’t predict the consequences of the possible Turkish invasion to Syria. From one hand, this action may bring certain release to Turkish NATO partner — the USA — as long as it will apparently weaken Iranian influence as a sponsor of Hamas and Hezbollah, from the other hand, it may cause a full-scale regional war featuring the anti-Turkish Kurdish coalition, who reside in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Syrian Kurds are well aware that Erdogan is hardly their best chance, because the solution of “Kurdish issue” will be exactly the pretext of invasion.
Fierce reaction of the new political power of Arab East — CCASG[1] — to the possible invasion to Syria is also quite evident. Shiite Iran is not an enemy of this council, yet CCASG hardly wishes to see new players at the field, where it reserved the key role for itself.
It is yet unclear whether Turkey will find the stomach to invade Syria. We can’t rule out the possibility that the “leaks” regarding the prepared action are only intended to frighten Syria and Iran. Yet, if Turkey makes up its mind for this, Middle Eastern theater of war is to go through a total scenery change.
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