13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE

Recent polls indicate that if the U.S. presidential elections took place today, Obama would have lost to both of his Republican rivals: Texas governor Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Mormon governor Mitt Romney. However, American professor Alan Lichtman believes that Obama has the re-election in the bag. He worked up a method he called “13 keys to the White House”.

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“Pre-Election America 2012”

In the previous article we’ve analyzed the inner competition of would-be-presidential candidates within the Republican camp. Now it’s past time to tell about Barack Obama’s chances for re-election.

While merely ten days ago, prospects of the incumbent President were quite cheerful, today his position doesn’t look that steady anymore. Public opinion polls indicate that Obama’s rating inevitably falls and had already hit an all time low mark of 48%. More than a half of the voters (55%) aren’t going to vote for him. Paradoxically as it is, this opinion is not spread over the personality of Barack Obama — 80% of Americans still consider him a charming man, who sincerely fights for his views and view him as sympathetic, hard-working and far-seeing person. Economic crisis, which triggered the growth of unemployment rate (it has already gone beyond the 9% of an entire able-bodied U.S. population), remains the main bugbear of the current administration. Democrats have heard yet another alarm call after the pre-term elections to the Congress House of Representatives from New-York state. This all-time Democratic stronghold voted for Republican Bob Turner, who replaced the Democrat Anthony Weaver in the parliament. The latter one had to resign after a scandal with his offers of sex dates, posted in the Internet, with the half-naked photos of Congressmen himself attached.

Barack Obama inherited the American economic troubles from George Bush, although, frankly speaking, they were ripening for several decades. America has triggered the good old Soviet backlash and undermined its own economy with excessive military spending. Giant budget deficit and huge national debt have been accumulating for year. Growth of unemployment and the increase of the number of Americans, driven beyond the poverty line, is the direct consequence of these negative macro-economic indices. By the end of last year, more than 15% of population in America was classified as poor — in absolute numbers it is 46.2 million people. If we add 14 million unemployed to 46 million poor it makes up nearly 20% of population. These 60 millions will hardly vote for the current President.

Without doubt Obama understands that his political future depends upon the success of his attempts to stimulate American economy. His new bill stipulates the allotment (or, precisely speaking, yet another emission) of $447 billion for creation of new jobs and the increase of taxes for large companies and wealthy Americans. That exactly the point when Republican and Democratic economic programs clash. Republicans, adhering to the state non-interference into economics, stand up against such measures. Besides, representing the large business they champion the corporations and rich part of American society from the extra tax burden with might and main. Government, however, refers to an opinion of such profound economists as, say, Paul Krugman — Economy Nobel-Prize-winning Princeton University Professor. He believes the budget deficit curtailment policy to be slowing down the development of American economy.

For three years in a row the FRS has been “pumping” the economy up with money, having spent $830 billion for that. In the end such fiscal policy may end up in a global disaster. If the investors lose their nerve and start dumping American state bonds, not just the U.S. but the global economy as well may collapse. Yet another problem starts brisking at the horizon: in the nearest years to come baby-boomers are to hit the retirement age. The increase of senior citizens will cause the drop of demand for consumers’ goods and estates with the simultaneously increasing pressure upon the social medicine. This will slow the GDP growth down and threaten to bury all the Democratic hopes to restore the economic growth. The worst thing for the incumbent President is that he, having failed to find common grounds with Republicans, is unable to being his economic program to life, as long as Democrats have lost their majority in the Lower House. On the other hand, Republicans are now interested in electing their own President, rather than saving the economy. Long story short, political death of Obama rests upon the end of the economic needle, hidden in a political egg with a frail shell. Recent polls indicate that if the U.S. presidential elections took place today, Obama would have lost to both of his Republican rivals: Texas governor Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Mormon governor Mitt Romney.

 However, American professor Alan Lichtman believes that Obama has the re-election in the bag. He worked up a method he called “13 keys to the White House”. Using it, he has been accurately forecasting the outcomes of Presidential elections since 1984. “I just see no way for Obama to lose” — Professor declared.

Professor Alan Lichtman

Lichtman’s reputation as a political soothsayer is stainless. In 1992, when then President George Bush Sr. reached the climax of his popularity, winning the Gulf War and driving the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, Professor prophesied his defeat at the elections and was right. In 2008 he claimed that Republicans are so deep in trouble that Democrats may choose any name from the telephone directory and still he wins.

Lichtman made no secret out of his wonderful system. He believes that even if Americans disapprove of their President, they’re still sure he wins. According to his 13-keys system, current President has to gain no less than seven of them in order to win. That’s what Professor Lichtman believes to be the keys to power in America.

1. After the midterm elections ruling party gains more seats in the Lower House than during the previous midterm elections. Obama loses this key.

2. Ruling party has to alternative candidate, charismatic enough to challenge the incumbent one. Obama has this key.

3. Incumbent President will also run the re-election. Obama has this key.

4. Lack of a strong third-party candidate. Obama has this key.

5. Economics is not recessing during the elections campaign. Lichtman found difficulties answering this.

6. Actual economic growth during the last term was equal or exceeded the average growth during two previous terms. Obama loses this key.

7. Efficient domestic-policy changes. Lichtman gave this key to Obama for his health-care reform.

8. Presence of the protest movement and social unrest. Obama has this key.

9. Government-related scandals. Lichtman believes Obama’s government to be crystal clear, so Obama has this key.

10. Military and foreign-policy failures. Obama has this key.

11. Military and foreign-policy achievements. Lichtman gave this key to Obama for Osama bin Laden’s assassination.

12. Candidate’s charisma. Weirdly enough, Lichtman didn’t give the key to Obama.

13. Candidate of the opposing party has charisma or is a national hero. Lichtman saw none of such among Republicans and gave this key to Obama.

This is actually it. One hasn’t to be super-bright to count that Lichtman gave Obama 9 keys out of 13, which means the guaranteed re-election of Democratic President to the second term. Now you only have to run to the nearest bookmaker and bet your watch and wallet on the fact that the 45^th U.S. President will come into play no sooner than in 2016 — unless, you don’t believe in the existence of never-erring experts.