Native population of Syria is carefully watching the situation in Libya, being afraid that it might repeat in their own country. We may hardly expect military invasion of NATO into Syria even in case of an outright stand between the authorities and protesters. At least, when the issue will be considered at the UN Security Council, we may be sure that this time Russia will veto the decision, and without permit of Security Council NATO would hardly make its mind to decisive actions.
Syrian politics — at home and abroad
In 1963 Arab Socialist Renaissance Party (Ba’ath) came to power after a coup. In 1970, after an internal Ba’ath insurrection, Hafez al-Assad — father of current President — headed the party and Syria itself. He ruled over both until he died in 2000. In order to give his son — Bashar al-Assad — an opportunity to head the country, parliament changed the Constitution, having lowered the age qualification from 40 to 34, i.e. to the actual age of his successor. Since 1963 when Assad family came to power in Syria, state of emergency has been valid in the country. Life of presidential family is largely complicated by the fact that Assads belong to the national minority — Alawites — that makes up 11% of the country population. Sunni Muslims make up 74% of population, 10% are Christians, 3% are Druze, 2% belong to Twelvers branch of Shia and Ismaili Muslims. Alawites profess some sort of a mix of Islam and Christianity. Certain Orthodox theologists treat them as a Christian sect, although they consider themselves Shiite.
Since the very beginning Assad family was placing their fellow brothers in faith to the top brass positions. In 1982 army, loyal to Hafez al-Assad, dealt shortly with the enemies of the regime. In 1982 Rifaat al-Assad, Hafez’s brother and Bashar’s uncle, headed the troops, assaulting the city of Hama — as a result he suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood rebellion, while the number of victims was estimated to be around 15–20 thousand people. Fighters of the Muslim Brotherhood have organized quite a number of assassination attempts against members of Ba’ath party and the representatives of local authorities. They’ve been protesting against secularism of the governing Syrian party. Since that moment any connection with Muslim Brothers was punished with an imprisonment in Syria.
Not-so-amiable Syrian relations with its closest neighbors started to improve in 2000. Before 2008 Israel was considered to be “enemy number one” in Syria, but three years ago Bashar al-Assad — with Turkey being a man-in-the-middle — started the peace talks with the Jewish state. Golan Heights still remain the apple of discord in the Israeli-Syrian relationship. Occupied by Israel in 1967, they have an important militarily-strategic meaning and also deposit a stock of drinking water.
Turkey also has an unsettled territorial dispute with Syria regarding Iskenderun (in Arabian) or Hatay (in Turkish), which France passed to Turkey in the 30s of the previous century. Although, during the rule of a current President, certain thaw in the Turkish-Syrian relations took place, Asad’s position on that issue remains stiff. Syria and Turkey are also brought together by the common problem of Kurdish separatism. Prior to the recent events, Kurdish protests took place in the north of the country — in the cities of Al-Qamishli and Ar-Raqqah, situated in the region that borders Turkey — in 2004. Dozens of Kurds have already died and few hundreds have been arrested during the current turmoil. In order to prevent future incidents, Assad deployed major military units near the areas of dense Kurdish population.
Iran may well be the only Syrian strategic partner in the region. These countries have a shared stand against Israel and both of them Washington once named as the links of “Axis of evil”. Damascus has welcomed the Iranian revolution of 1979 and supported Tehran in the Iraqi-Iranian war. Syria and Iran fund the Lebanese movement Hezbollah and their relationship is being constantly consolidated by the mutual visits of top state officials. Cooperation of two countries includes cultural and economic exchange, as well as the military sphere. Tehran annually invests about a billion dollars into the Syrian budget and in response Damascus supports the Iranian nuclear program.
Unreceptiveness to revolutions
Two months ago, during the meeting with Turkish Prime Minister, President al-Assad claimed that his country is unreceptive to revolutions. We have to give him this credit — he had all the grounds to think so. Secret service named al-Mukhabarat al-Amma, using the extensive network of secret informers, is the foundation of existing Syrian regime. Besides, Bashar al-Assad himself is considered to be a reformer — his actions largely contribute to that: he intends to enliven the economics, liberalize markets, create financial system from one hand and retain the social-mindedness of the state, on the other one. Opposition, however, considers these changes to be superficial. Nearly two million of Syrian Alawites support the President, while merely twenty thousand protesters have hit the streets. In comparison to the Tunisian and Egyptian processes it doesn’t seem critical at all. Syrian society is much less informed at that, although the blockade of social networks was lifted up in February of this year. It is estimated that merely 0.1% of Syrian population uses Facebook. Yet, Facebook group named “Syrian Revolution 2011: People’s Revolution against Bashar al-Assad” counts up 75 thousand people. Compare this to 150 thousand members in the similar Egyptian groups on the eve of “Day of Wrath”.
Prospects of the situation
Is there a chance for Egyptian scenario to repeat in Syria? It is rather doubtful. Ground difference between Hosni Mubarak and Bashar al-Assad is their attitude towards the USA and Israel. Peace treaty with Israel and close relations with the USA has been depriving Mubarak of grounds for dissident’s oppression and absence of reforms in the eyes of Arabs themselves. Mubarak tried to legitimize his policy using the fight against terrorism as an excuse, thus gaining equal numbers of rivals and followers.
Having supported Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Bashar al-Assad brands himself as a commander of the last stronghold, fighting against “international Zionism”. We shouldn’t forget that Syrian President is still young — he’s only 45, while Mubarak and Ben Ali were in their 80s. Just like his peer kings of Jordan and Morocco he’s flexible and unwilling “to step down” at all. Loyalty of the army and special services is the major factor of keeping power in Syria. President’s brothers in faith — Alawites — hold the top posts in these institutions. We can’t also write off the support of strong neighbors like Turkey and Iran. Syrian relations with Iraq are quite peculiar, too. Approximately 1.3 million Iraqi refugees have sought asylum at the Syrian territory, fleeing from their motherland, struck by the civil war. These people, whose lives have already been broken by Iraqi war, will obviously be unwilling to participate in the Syrian revolution.
Demonstration supporting Bashar al-Assad on the 28th of March, 2011 in Damascus
Kurds pose a serious threat for Syria due to quite a number of reasons — one of them being the support of Massoud Barzani (leader of well-organized and well-armed Iraqi Kurds). Native population of Syria is carefully watching the situation in Libya, being afraid that it might repeat in their own country.
We may hardly expect military invasion of NATO into Syria even in case of an outright stand between the authorities and protesters. At least, when the issue will be considered at the UN Security Council, we may be sure that this time Russia will veto the decision, and without permit of Security Council NATO would hardly make its mind to decisive actions.
What’s more dangerous for al-Assad: people’s revolution or palace shuffling?
Reaction of Syrian President to the population protests was predictable and rightful.
He promised to cancel the 48-year-long state of emergency, disbanded the government and announced the beginning of political reforms. Yet, Syrian nation has been “fed” with these promises since 2005 but something has always stood in al-Assads way, preventing him from bringing the reforms to life. Syrian Arab News Agency reported about creation of a special committee, which was to define how these promises are to be brought to life before the 25th of April. In particular, state of emergency is to be replaced with a special anti-terrorist law. Remaining reforms, dedicated to fights against corruption, unemployment rate growth and revival of the national unity are to be made up within a month. New government is to deal with it. It is headed by Adel Safar, 58-year-old former Minister of Agriculture and a Ba’ath member. He has a reputation of an agrarian specialist and a person not involved into any financial scandals. He got his PhD in France and for several years he used to be a dean of the Damascus University. It is expected that he will form the new cabinet, featuring the presence of national Sunni minority and Kurds.
That put the opposition into a situation when it either has to await the promised reforms or continue the protests. During his interview to BBC, prominent opposition activist Akhtam Naisse claimed that if al-Assad actually carries out the democratic reforms his nation will support him. So does everything actually depend upon the President? Holding a public speech in the parliament on the 30th of March, Bashar al-Assad announced:
“Syria has fallen a victim of an external plot. Our enemies are trying to undermine our stability. They are sly and don’t feel short of conspiracy means, yet they’ve chosen the wrong nation and wrong state.”
Presidential press attaché also keeps talking about conspiracy theories. List of the external enemies is short and predictable. Quite naturally, it includes Israel, Palestinian refugees and the Western media. However, according to certain specialists, majoring on Syrian policy, there was a split within the President Assad’s camp. Part of his camp stands up for a dialogue with their own people, the other part offers to use force. As one of the oppositionists told The Daily Telegraph:
“Presidents might not be a democrat, but unlike his surrounding, attempting to conduct a palace coup, he’s at least pragmatic”.
Maher al-Assad — brother of current President and the younger brother of Hafez al-Assad — is considered to be the most likely organizer of the plot. After death of the elder son in a car accident in 1994 it was Maher who was unofficially considered to be the heir of his father. Yet, in 1999, during a family quarrel, he shot his relative, General Assef Shawqat in the belly and that accident has pre-defined the presidential destiny of Bashar al-Assad. At the present moment Maher heads the President’s Guard and councils his brother. Version about palace revolution may explain the appearance of mysterious snipers, shooting at the demonstrators in the city of Latakia, where 16 people were killed. Protesters believe that the snipers belonged to a notorious Shabiha organization, connected with al-Assad family. They have also been seen in the city of Tartus and in the outskirts of Damascus.
Significance of Syria for the Middle East
American analysts tend to think that it exactly Syrian events that may turn an entire Middle East ablaze — if they aggravate furthermore. Numerous Middle-Eastern countries consider the “Axis of evil”, consisting of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah to be a counter-balance to Israeli and American influence in the region. Missing Syrian link may push them to more risky actions in order to level the advantages that Tel-Aviv and Washington might get from the crisis in Damascus. Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime would have undermined the positions of Iran and Hezbollah, which would have caved the fragile Middle-Eastern balance of power.
“Syria is key player at various frontlines: in Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Palestine and Israel. Yet, its internal troubles may shuffle all the cards, thus increasing the degree of uncertainty and covert tensions in the region. Out of all dangers, threatening the Middle East, inter-confessional extremism is, perhaps, the most serious one (probably even more dangerous than the probability of new Arab-Israeli conflict). It poisons international and domestic relations, it sows seeds of hatred, intolerance and mistrust” — Patrick Seale (British author, specializing in the Middle East) considers.
Syria makes up a vivid example of a country, where ancient religions, sects and ethnic groups, poorly-cemented by a single territory, have mixed up. Sunni majority perceives itself offended at the background of prevailing Alawites, whom al-Assad undoubtedly favors.
Interethnic and inter-confessional conflict in Syria may end up with serious regional shocks.
No comments:
Post a Comment