„God, Syria and Freedom” is the main motto of people, protesting against Syrian ruler Bashar Al-Assad in the south of the country. Like in the rest of Arabian countries ablaze with revolutionary flames, people demand to cancel the state of emergency, which was imposed 48 hours ago, supress corruption and fight unemployment and poverty.
Syrian «Days of Wrath»
First symptoms of revolutionary situation in Syria emerged on the 16th of March. Several hundreds of protesters gathered by the Ministry of Interior building, demanding to release the political prisoners — in 2004 their number in Syria was estimated to be about 17 thousand people. Authorities described these events as “some minor incidents”, provoked by “a bunch of waywards”. Yet, quite considerable contingents of police and security forces were sent to oppose this “bunch” — the former have driven away the protesters with their clubs. Sequel rally followed on Friday, the 18th of March — it is becoming a dangerous tradition of pan-Arabian revolutionaries (unrests in Tunisia and Egypt also started after the Friday prayers). Due to Arabian passion for florid wordings, Syrian events were called the “Dignity Friday”. People have hit the streets of Damascus, Baniyas and Homs in the west, Hama in the north, Aleppo in the north-west, Ar-Raqqah in the north, Al-Hasakah in the north-east and in Deir ez-Zor in the east. Two simultaneous political rallies — anti- and pro governmental — took place in Damascus. Several hundred people participated in each. According to the media reports, two adversaries of the governing Ba’ath party were detained.
Decisive response of authorities
The most fierce protests took place in Daara. Arrest of few teenagers — who were painting graffiti with the calls to overthrow President Assad upon the city walls — catalyzed the people’s response. A group of vandals, burning cars, buildings and sacking the shops managed to infiltrate the few thousand peacefully protesting Syrians. Some of them had firearms. Law enforcement officers exercized arms, which resulted in three people dead and dozens of wounded.
In Arabian countries weapons are much more accessible than in Europe and we can’t rule out the possibility that part of protesters was really armed. This might have caused the brutal reaction of police and special services.
On the 19th of March another series of turmoil started in Daara; this time it took place during the funerals of the previous disturbances’ victims. Police used tear gas against the demonstrators — according to various estimates, the number of the latter reached 10 thousand people. The next day unrest repeated and that time there were about 20 thousand of protesters. The revolt spread to city of Quneitra, situated in the area of Golan Heights. Military troops were sent there in order to reinforce the borders with Lebanon and Jordan. Special division has split the souther part of the country from the rest of its territory. Major military units have already surrounded Damascus. Army has also blocked the roads from Jabal ad Duruz (Duruz Mountain), which revolted against Damascus in 1925 — everyone in Syria still remembers that and Assad couldn’t have let it happen again.
On the 22nd of March protests have died out in one city, but simultaneously emerged in another one — located not far from the city of Nawa.UN Human Rights Council has demanded to hold an independent investigation of the crackdowns, commited by Syrian special services, police and army. Council has called for Syrian athorities, reminding them to respect the people’s right for peaceful protests.
Turkey’s uneasy
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan told the „Hurriyat” newspaper that during his visit to Damascus he warned Bashar al-Assad of the need to carry out democratic reforms in order to avoid Tunisian or Egyptian scenarios. Turkish Prime Minister has also called for his Syrian counterpart to seek for “the ways of approaching common people via the democratic means” and to “learn the regional lessons”. He also expressed his regret of the fact that Syrian President didn’t follow his advice.
This interview proves anxiety of Turkey, which has been developing friendly relations with Syria since 2000 in order to join their efforts and oppose Kurds, inhabiting Turkish-Syrian borderlands. Given the Syrian unrest and stable status of Kurdish Autonomy in the north of Iraq, this stateless nation may try to create a sovereign Kurdistan with once Turkish and Syrian territories being parts of it. It turned out that Erdogan’s worries are not that groundless, indeed. Murat Karayilan — leader of Kurdistan Workers Party (KWP) — stated the following:
“For now, Kurds-populated north-east of Syria remains calm. Yet, it’s quite probable that the tidal wave of unrest may spread all over the entire country. I’m calling for Syrian authorities to start with the human-rights-oriented reforms without hesitation. Solution of the Kurdish issue will be the decisive factor of the future democratization and thus, Syrian government should do its best and initiate the negotiations with Kurds as quick as possible. If Kurds start an uprising , this may lead to a far more serious consequneces than Arabian revolts. Kurds demand turning Syria into a liberal and democratic country. It is to recognize cultural Kurdish self-identity and satisfy their political, cultural and social claims”.
Murat Karayilan
This may be considered a reply to the statement of Turkish Prime Minister, dated by the 31st of March:
“Syrian events directly influence the neighboring Turkey. 1.4 million Kurds currently living at Syrian territory pose a great threat for Turkey. If President Bashar Assad steps down, these 1.4 million Kurds, 15 million Turkish Kurds, 7 million Iranian Kurds and 6 million Kurds from the north of Iraq may rise together and put forth their claims for creation of an independent state”.
Syrian events at the background of Arabian revolutions
N. Roubini scheme
Revolutionary outbreaks have been roaming from one Arabian country to another since January of this year. They’ve even affected Iran and analysts from all other the world are trying to find general reasons that brought them to life in the first place. They examine the factors that catalyze or slow down the changes in Arabian world, conditions that promote success or failure of protesting nations. Economic, demographic and political tools of analysis are applied, each country’s situation is being speculatively modelled — further development is being forecasted on its basis. Nouriel Roubini — well-known American economist and New York University professor — offered to compare the situation in Arabian countries using the IMF, World Bank and UN data. Roubini’s analysis took the following factors into consideration: GDP per capita, average lifespan, unemployment rate and the ratio of oil importing and exportig countries. Without doubt, GDP per capita value gives only the rough idea of real wealth of citizens. The biggest flaw of these analyses is the absence of generally accessible information on Arabian countries. Yet, even this rough estimate gives a chance to denote that the economic factor contributed to revolutionary pace the most. So Egyptian GDP per capita makes up merely $2.450, while 11.9% of Syrian population live below the poverty line. Oil-importing countries prevail among the countries enveloped in revolutionary flames. Libya and Bahrain make the only exceptions here, yet they feature uneven distribution of oil profits and the non-economic problems like multi-ethnicity and various mix of confessions. Despite the relatively high GDP per capita level ($9.520, although according to the CIA data this number was artificially lowered and in fact makes up $13.800), approximately 30% of population live below the official poverty line. Tribal conflicts and Berber discrimination should be mentioned as the factors that largely contributed to Libyan events, and when it comes to Bahrain, it was political and economic discrimination of Shiite minority.
Syria doesn’t look particularly splendid at this background. Its GDP per capita makes up $2.579 (placing it between Egypt and Tunisia), it imports oil, has a 10% unemployment rate, short lifespan and relatively high poverty rate.
Proceeding from this data we may conclude that revolutionary risks are pretty high for Syria. On-going rallies keep confirming this diagnosis. Does President Bashar al-Assad really risks losing his post?
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