Donald Tusk will hardly be able to rule for more years without scandals and shocks. He has managed to go through the previous cadenza at a record-breaking peaceful pace, having losing almost none of the essential Ministers of his Cabinet. That’s why having coped with the euphoria of the triumph he’s ponder over how to live the next four years and don’t make the Poles tired from seeing the same faces in the government and the Seim.
The State Election Commission in Warsaw concluded the elections to both chambers of the Polish parliament — Seim and Senate, which took place the last Sunday. The main intrigue was obviously the stand of the two main political rivals — Civil Platform and Law and Order (PiS).
Anticipated triumph of the Civil Platform still left some place for an intrigue, albeit a quite transient one. During literally the last days of “pre-election silence” public opinion polls came out, indicating absolute the same level of electoral support for both of the parties, although an entire election campaign had gone under the colors of Donald Tusk’s advantage. Yet, we’ve witnessed no miracles. Victory of the Civil Platform has become the first time in the history of modern post-communist Poland, when a certain political party managed to win two times in a row. Until now no party has ever managed to stay at helm for more than one term. Jarosław Kaczyński’s PiS has fallen an easy prey to for the Civil Platform. Election results leave no place for doubts: language of confrontation that the brother of the late Presidents speaks is alien to Poles. They’ve chosen the way of reform and making amends, rather than enemies.
Quite big turnout has also indicated that Poles are concerned with their own future. 15.053.754 (48.92%) out of 30.762.931 Poles have taken part. 39.18% voted for the Civil Platform, 29.89% — for the PiS. This result grants 207 MP mandates to the CP, and 157 of them — to the PiS.
And that’s where the sensations come into play. Brand-new political force — Palikot Movement — placed third, having gained about one and a half million votes. This result brings Palikot 40 Seim seats and makes him the prime political talker of the day. Janusz Palikot is a philosopher, who has made his fortunate on strong spirits, quite an individual indeed. One may click this link to get to know him better. There has never been a party like this in the Polish history. We may argue whether Palikot is a brainchild of Tusk’s spinmeisters or an independent force, but one thing is clear — he, who has hit the bull’s eye feeling the Polish fatigue with the domination of an almighty Catholic Church, has clearly made a right move. Youth that grew up in the European Union, rather than a small self-contained country has given him its votes. They’ve liked his gallant anti-clericalism and left-wing ideology combined with a right-wingish economics. Polish history has never known a gender-bender MP. Well, now it has one — if the gossips are true, a woman past her fifties, who had once been a man, may become a Vice Chair of Seim.
Most surprisingly, Palikot actually managed “to kill” the SLD — Democratic Left Alliance (the post-socialist party and the heir to Polish communists). The latter one has suffered a shattering defeat, having placed 5th with a result of 8.24% and 27 seats in the Seim. Their attitude to religion is the reason. SLD (just like the Communist Party of Russian Federation) has been doing its best to feign a respectful attitude to religion, although everyone was fully aware that this is the party of atheists. Openly proclaiming one’s atheism in a Catholic country has been always considered a political death. Palikot has openly demanded to eliminated the church retirement fund instead (maintained on the account of the state budget) and taxing the Polish priesthood just like the rest of the taxpayers. This insanity has actually brought him victory. PSL (the oldest Polish party and CP ally in the ruling coalition), which has long ago deceased as a peasants’ party and was reborn as a party of agricultural lords took the modest 4th place with 8.36% and 28 Seim seats. Jarosław Kaczyński’s loss at the Senate elections was even bitterer. 63 Senators from Civil Platform and merely 31 from PiS will take their places in the Supreme Chamber of the Polish parliament.
While the elections itself brought no peculiar surprises apart from Palikot’s victory, we may hardly say the same about the post-election activity of the winners. All of a sudden, usually modest and prudent Donald Tusk has surprised everyone with an awkward claim that due to the Polish chairmanship in the EU, which is to last till the end of the year, he’s not going to shuffle the government until then. This, rather bold, statement came as a surprise to everyone. Tusk’s party has won the election, but he is still to wait for President’s offer to form the government, while appointing the Cabinet members is actually the job for the President. Theoretically, a wide variety of coalitional layouts in Seim still remains possible and the hasty statement of the ex-Prime Minister may only be explained with his euphoria with the victory. There’s however yet another reason, which may have provoked Tusk to make this inappropriate comment. We’re talking about the backstage rivalry between Tusk and the Seim Chair Grzegorz Schetyna.
The first leaks regarding the alleged meeting of Schetyna and President Komorowski, where they’d discussed the post-election situation, have already appeared in the media. Tusk hadn’t been invited to them and this had possibly made him stand up with a contradictory statement. Rumors that Schetyna is not quite satisfied with the position of Seim chair (and would be willing to rule the country his way as a Prime Minister) have circulated in the CP for quite a time. All three of them (Komorowski, Tusk and Schetyna), however, are quite sound men and will surely reach common grounds allowing to avoid the harsh moves. Be as it may, Minister of Foreign Affairs Radoslaw Sikorski (who surely shouldn’t worry about his reappointment) has already stated that Poland will keep up with its good-neighborly policy towards Germany and Russia and that no changes on that foreign-policy direction are foreknown.
It is more likely that the layout of the Polish ruling coalition will remain the same. In alliance with the PSL Tusk’s party keeps the Seim majority. Janusz Palikot’s made a weird statement though, indirectly proving his party to be a project of Donald Tusk. Leader of the third greatest political power in the country offered Donald Tusk to create a “minority government”, i.e. to rule independently from other coalition members, whom Tusk actually had some trouble with in the last four years. This “noble offer” means that Tusk won’t have to share the posts with agrarians and will be able to put the right men of his own to all the posts in the Cabinet. At that, selfless Palikot, who promised to give him his 40 “bayonets” for free, is to be his shoulder to rely on in the Seim. This offer allows Tusk to initiate the peasant retirement fund reform, which has been an irritant for Polish reformers.
Being a truly peasant party, PSL has always blocked those reforms, threatening to leave the opposition, therefore, triggering the resignation of an entire cabinet. Generous Palikot’s offer should hardly be viewed as implication to his readiness to ally with the CP. The matter is the people, who’ve made it to the Seim according to his ballot paper — they are clearly not ready to fulfill Ministers’ duties. Polish newspapers that know nothing of them even encourage their readers to share any information they dispose. Being an experienced politician, Palikot surely won’t be willing to compromise his party, appointing inappropriate deputies to the state posts.
These are the brief resume of Polish Seim elections. We may surely foresee the old Prime Minister to head the new government, the tension of oppositional fight against the party of Jarosław Kaczyński to ratchet up furthermore and the Polish foreign policy to remain the same, give or take a few things.
One more thing. Donald Tusk will hardly be able to rule for more years without scandals and shocks. He has managed to go through the previous cadenza at a record-breaking peaceful pace, having losing almost none of the essential Ministers of his Cabinet. That’s why having coped with the euphoria of the triumph he’s ponder over how to live the next four years and don’t make the Poles tired from seeing the same faces in the government and the Seim.
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