Is Ankara threatening Cyprus with war?
Turkish stirring up at the Middle East, its attempt to scrape up the political fortune at the settlement of Palestinian conflict seems sufficient for solving the foreign-policy goals, which Recep Erdoğan set after winning the elections. Either appetite comes with eating, or the bellicose descendants of Mehmed the Conqueror took an offence for their maneuvers and demarches going unnoticed by the Euro-Union and the USA — be as it may, Turks have started an unprecedented sabre-rattling campaign.
While the game of Israeli-Turkish relations was on, it could have been explained with the same Turkish goal to become the only mediator between the Islamic world and the West. At first Erdoğan expressed his discontent with the UN report, concluding the investigation of the Freedom Flotilla incident, then he demanded excuses from Israel, being not contempt with its regrets and readiness to indemnify the victims, which quite fir the scenario of reaching the cherished goal. But after that even the extradition of Israeli ambassador seemed to be not enough for him and Turkey decided to challenge the European Union itself, unwilling to accept the country as one of its members.
Cyprus — soft European underbelly
Military graveyard in Nicosia, where Cypriote and Greek soldiers, who died reflecting the Turkish invasion to the island in 1974, rest
On the 20th of July Turkish Prime Minister visited the unrecognized Republic of Northern Cyprus, where he made an unprecedented announcement. Recep Erdoğan said no less than that:
«Turkey will completely suspend its relations with the European Union in case Cyprus assumes the EU chairmanship prior to reaching an agreement regarding the unification of the island, which is divided on the ethnic basis now. Everyone has to know that the existing opportunities to make a decision on Cyprus are not eternal. Despite all the displays of injustice, Turkish Northern Cyprus works upon achieving peace and finding the solution, yet its patience is running out.”
Just like that. By the way, visit of the Turkish leader was dated to the 37th anniversary of Turkish invasion to the island. Approximately 30 thousand Turkish soldiers landed at the island then and after the ethnic purges against Cypriote Greeks, they’ve simply cut a part of the Cypriote territory of, having proclaimed the Republic of the Northern Cyprus there — by this moment it hasn’t been recognized by a single state in the world. After the violent division of Cyprus both its Greek and Turkish parts have fetched themselves in an equally severe economic situation. Comparing two parts of the island today though, the Greek looks as a prospering resort, while the Turkish one is a provincial outskirts. At that, Greeks have achieved this prosperity all by themselves, while Turks benefit from the constant economic aid from Ankara. Now, having seemingly bothered himself with the improvement of living standards of his fellow compatriots, Erdoğan, decided to let them use all the good of Greek Cyprus. It’s curious that both parts of the island held referendums on the reunion and while Turkish Cypriotes voted for it, Greek ones voted against.
The entire incident has two more curious circumstances.
The first one is the timing for the ultimatum to the EU. Cyprus is to assume the chairmanship in merely a year. Why warning the Euro-Union about the absurd intention to suspend the relationship a year in advance? All the more that it is Turkey, rather than the united Europe, which is interested in them.
The second one is the European reaction to the ultimatum. It’s clear that today Europe has no time for Turks: economic crisis has put the very existence of the Union to question; mass protests that spread across Europe and are still one in some places also do not contribute to the weighed-up long-term policy. If we add the participation of European armies in the Afghani, Iraqi and Libyan wars, which irritate the European community very much, Turkish push, willing to add one more point to an impressive list of European troubles, is getting clear
Yet, despite these reasons, EU reaction still looks inadequately weak. Euro-Parliament Committee representative for Turkish affairs Richard Howitt has softly warned that such threats may have negative consequences for Ankara: “There’s no point in such statements in conditions of a threat for the sides to break all the ties. Too many Europeans will view it as an opportunity, rather than threat. I’m unwilling to help the Turkish rivals, who will only rejoice if Turkey voluntarily withdraws itself from the talks, and will try to take advantage of this in order to postpone them furthermore or renounce them at all”.
It’s terrible to think of the EU reaction, had, say, Russia given such signals. Yet, in the Turkish case Euro-bureaucrats decided to demonstrate the miraculous diplomatic politeness and tact.
Gas irritant
Yet, even that wasn’t enough for the heirs of the Ottoman greatness. On the 3rd of September Turkish Minister for the EU Affairs Egemen Bağış made an official statement, threatening to use military force, if the government of the Republic of Cyprus starts the exploration drilling at the coastline of an island state, in order to survey to natural gas deposits. Thus, Turkey attempts to forbid the Republic of Cyprus drilling the shelf wells, which lies within the exclusive economic zone of this country, claiming that it violates the interests of Ankara and Turkish Cypriotes, controlling the northern part of the island. Such actions of Greek Cypriotes may allegedly damage the ongoing negotiations on the Cypriote conflict settlement.
Meanwhile, the first bidding for the exploration at the shelf was carried out as far back as in 2007. According to its resumes, American company Noble Energy, headquartered in Houston, got the concession. It was exactly this company, which has recently discovered huge gas deposits at the Israeli shelf close to Cyprus. Company leadership announces its wish to start drilling on the 1st of October. It’s curious, that unlike European partners, it was Russia that publicly championed Cyprus in this situation. On the 19th of August official spokesman of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alexandre Lukashevich said:
“If the Cypriote side plans to carry out the exploration and production of the mineral resources within the Exclusive Economic Zone, which were demarcated with the neighboring states, such activity conforms to the requirements of international legislation and the amount of sovereign rights, which the Republic of Cyprus disposes according to the UN Convention on the Maritime Law”.
Ban Ki-moon suggestion to send the UN peacemaking corps, consisting of Turkish troops, to Libya, sounded in utter dissonance to these tumultuous events. The though itself is a quite good one, given the fact that in a Muslim countries Turkish servicemen would be much more efficient than French or Italian — all the more, Europeans will hardly risk sending their troops to the faraway Libya, having completely disentangled themselves from Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet, in this context offer of the UN leader looks rather inappropriate.
It’s clear that Erdoğan is annoyed with Cyprus becoming the EU member, and got an opportunity to veto Turkish entry in no time — his irritation with the possible gas production at the Cypriote shelf is even better comprehensible. Turkish energetics policy will be reduced to a role of a transit state then.
It’s also quite understandable the sun of religious, political, moral, economic and military components — altogether called the West — has become so heterogeneous that fetched itself on the verge of extinction. Today the EU has no time for Cyprus, but Turkish aggression has to face some European rebuff, if it styles itself as a geopolitical subject. On our behalf I may say that a reserved, yet worthy reproof of our Ministry of Foreign Affairs gives evidence that Russia, still willing to develop its partnership with Turkey, is not going to wink at the aggressive rhetoric that stretches far beyond all acceptable rules.
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