For several months tensions in the Middle East have been growing with each passing day. Protests, gradually turning into a bloody manslaughter, have spread from Tunisia to Libya, having struck the territories of Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. As for the geographic center of these events, we have Israel, Hamas in the Gaza strip and Fatah at the West Bank. Why haven’t the mass protests movement flared up in this area, although it should have been the utmost appropriate thing to expect from Palestinians?
For several months tensions in the Middle East have been growing with each passing day. Protests, gradually turning into a bloody manslaughter, have spread from Tunisia to Libya, having struck the territories of Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. As for the geographic center of these events, we have Israel, Hamas in the Gaza strip and Fatah at the West Bank. Why haven’t the mass protests movement flared up in this area, although it should have been the utmost appropriate thing to expect from Palestinians?
Hamas is waiting for Egyptian decision to open the border
STRATFOR CEO, Dr George Friedman has written in his article “The Arab Risings, Israel and Hamas” that most Arab countries had “close relations” with the Jewish state since the moment of its emergence, the ones grounded upon the intelligence cooperation. Thus, they’ve managed to avoid the accusations of “collaborationism”, albeit indirectly recognizing the state of Israel. Despite the dubious regional “popularity” of Israel, today’s Arab states are neither anti-Israel in their essence, nor they are soaked with pan-Arabism spirit. The most surprising thing is that Arab Spring of 2011 didn’t launch new Intifada — moreover, Palestinians haven’t reacted to revolutionary fervor of their fellow nations in any way whatsoever. We may only assume that calm at the West Bank is conditioned by Fatah apprehensions that it might cause Israel’s response, which will inevitably finish off the feeble Palestinian economy.
Hamas, though, is in a completely different state right now. Having fetched itself in isolation between Egypt and Israel, which have closed their borders at both flanks, Gaza Strip lost its access not only to weapons, but to the most common consumer goods (including food) as well. Make no mistake, Egyptian riots and Mubarak’s resignation that followed them were more than desirable for Hamas. There were plenty of Palestinian envoys among the participants of Egyptian revolution. They’ve definitely expected Mubarak’s successor to ease down the policy regarding Palestine. No one of them assumed the transition of power to the military, who are still unwilling to change their Palestinian policy. George Friedman believes that Hamas has to evolve so its policy will conform to the recent Middle Eastern events. Public image of the movement — and entire Palestine itself — has to be reviewed. We may only try to guess what this popular author of fantasy-like political forecasts means by that. Perhaps, that there may also be a Palestinian revolution, designed to pattern of “spring of Arabian nations”.
Freedom Flotilla-2 is to depart for Gaza soon
Future Egyptian government holds the key to success of Hamas. The decision to open the Egyptian-Palestinian border will be up to them. Growth of tensions in that area has always ended up with Israeli power play. This, in its turn, deteriorates Israeli relations with the neighbors. Episode with the Turkish Freedom Flotilla makes a vivid example of that. As a result of Israeli naval attack, 9 Turkish citizens died, which immediately ruined the Turkish-Israeli relations. Hamas’ best interest would be to merge with Hezbollah and provoke Israel to start the conflict with its neighbors. Turkey, trying to line its pocket from the fire of Arabian revolutions, decided to repeat its maritime raid to Gaza Strip in order to fan the smoldering Israeli-Palestinian conflict and remind that she is the main champion of all Palestinians. In May it is going to dispatch the Freedom Flotilla-2 to the Gaza Strip. Responding to Israeli request to hinder that move, Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmed Davutoglu advised Israel not to interfere with the Flotilla that is going to deliver more cargo to Gaza Strip. During his interview to Sydney Morning Herald Davutoglu stated that Israel shouldn’t “commit the very same mistake” it made in May of the last year, when Israeli authorities didn’t allow flotilla to reach the Gaza coast. According to him, Mediterranean Sea doesn’t belong to a particular country. Turkish party reported that Israel requested them to prevent the leave of that Flotilla, initiated by the Free Gaza Movement, but Turkish leadership replied that it is unable to impede the activists. As the movement representatives reported, this time 15 ships would be fitted out. Last year the incident flared up when flotilla of six ships, carrying 10 tons of cargo, tried to break the three-year-long blockade of Gaza Strip. Flotilla was intercepted by Israeli task force unit, which opened fire — as a result, 9 Turkish activists died and 7 Israeli soldiers were wounded during the melee aboard the ship. That incident has dramatically severed the relations between Israel and its former ally — Turkey. The latter agreed to normalize the relations, had Israeli side made the apologies and indemnified the losses, but Israel failed to see to these conditions.
Ripening conflict between Israel on one hand and Turkey along with Hamas on the other one is to seemingly make the USA interfere with Israeli West Bank settlements policy in order to moderate the situation. Paradoxical as it may seem, but even after Israeli military bombed Gaza in 2009, Hamas remained the ability to shoot missiles at Israel. Israeli intelligence was unable to discover the hideouts, where primitive and homemade — yet every bit as dangerous — Palestinian rockets were produced. Armed conflict between Hamas and Israel will inevitably hurt Palestinians, but it will also change their public image and bring them back to the frontlines of world newspapers and to the UN agenda of the day. We have to keep in mind, though, that Arab countries, preoccupied with “their” revolutions are unable to render Palestine any sort of substantial help and Syria remains the only sponsor, capable of rendering some feasible aid. Yet, even in Syria events keep unfolding in the unfavorable way for its authorities.
Revolution in Palestine may launch a big Middle Eastern war
Hamas has nothing else to do but to wait for more distinct situation in Egypt, hoping for its Palestinian policy to change. Simultaneously with Turkish participation, Hamas is preparing itself for a new conflict with Israel, appealing for the global opinion and improving its public image. Israel, however, given its unpredictable Arabian neighborhood, will behave itself very cautiously, as long as any armed conflict may aggravate its relations with Arabian countries and provoke the growth of anti-Israel sentiments in Europe.
Gaza Strip is a very peculiar and poorly-comprehensible Middle Eastern area. Despite its severe economic state and the declining support of Palestinian leadership, the latter still has the support of population. Any revolution there will be anti-Israel, rather anti-Hamas one. This is a time bomb that is ticking beside European and American ears, while Turkey, trying to make its way to the European Union — and being the NATO member at the same time — is try to fiddle with its timer. I wonder if Europeans — and especially French who have put their claims for Middle Eastern leadership — actually understand what a blunder they made, having refused the Euro-Union membership to Turks?
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